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Analyzing The Data: Modern Prizm Base vs. Prizm Silver

mobile prizm modern
Jason Koeppel // ONE37pm

PSA, one of the largest sports card grading companies in the world, decided to suspend operations because they were inundated with cards to grade. It was reported that the number of cards to be graded numbered in the millions, and they took a pause to catch up before moving forward. 

As demand for the hobby has grown, so has the supply by way of these new submissions to PSA and other grading companies. While it’s great to see the interest in the hobby exceed its infrastructure, what could this mean for values of cards? 

Starting in 2012, we’ll analyze Prizm Base PSA 10 card pricing vs. Prizm Silver PSA 10 card pricing and population change over time in the NBA market through 2019. 

To keep it simple, we’ll look at the top rookies of each class to see what insights emerge. 

1. 2012 Prizm: Anthony Davis, Bradley Beal and Damian Lillard

davis beal lillard
Jason Koeppel // ONE37pm

Anthony Davis is an 8-time NBA All Star who recently won a championship as a member of the Lakers with Lebron James. 

Davis is ranked the 45th best all-time player by ESPN. 

2012 Prizm Base PSA 10 

Current Value: $925 

Current Population: 1,420 

Monthly Population Growth: 2.16% (+30 copies)

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CardLadder

Back in December of 2017, this card first sold for $50. 

It peaked at $3,624 on August 9th, 2020 representing a total growth of over 7,000%! 

The card’s latest sale of $935 puts it lower than it was in June of 2020. The card has lost 74% of its value since the peak price and with the Lakers early playoff exit, the card continues on a downward trend. 

2012 Prizm Silver PSA 10 

Current Value: $8,610 

Current Population: 31 

Monthly Population Growth: 0% (No new copies)

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CardLadder

On April 11th, 2018, this card sold for $1,137 and peaked at $24,880, which represented 2,000% growth in just over 2 years. 

The card last sold on Goldin Auctions at an 86% decrease in value from the last sale. Despite the steady population, this card decreased in relative value by 12% more than it’s higher print-run base counterpart. 

Bradley Beal is a 2-time All-Star and is currently playing for the Washington Wizards. 

2012 Prizm Base PSA 10 

Current Value: $345 

Current Population: 570 

Monthly Population Growth: 9.83% (+51 copies)

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CardLadder

In December of 2017, Beal’s Prizm Base PSA 10 sold for just $12. The card peaked to $1,200 in February 2021, or 9,900% growth but has lost 71% of its value since peak, continuing to sink after the Wizards early playoff exit. 

It’s apparent that since the card has increased in value, more copies were submitted for grading as it gained 51 new PSA 10 copies in just 1 month. 

2012 Prizm Silver PSA 10 

Current Value: $10,000 (4/9/2021) 

Current Population: 23 

Monthly Population Growth: 4.55% (+1 copy)

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CardLadder

In April of 2018, it first sold for $157.50, reaching a peak of $10,000 on April 9th, 2021, or 6,250% growth. There have been no recorded sakes since April, but given the decline in value of the Prizm base, it’s likely this card would reach a new low if sold today. 

Damian Lillard is a 5-time All Star who was ranked 72nd by ESPN on its Top 100 All-time players list: 

2012 Prizm Base PSA 10 

Current Value: $899.17 

Current Population: 860 

Monthly Population Growth: 2.87% (+24 copies)

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CardLadder

In December of 2017, this card sold for $26, and hit a peak price of $2,963 in August of 2020 representing 11,296% growth. 

Since its peak, this card has lost 69% of its value. 

2012 Prizm Silver PSA 10 

Current Value: $5,762

Current Population: 32 

Monthly Population Growth: 3.23% (+1 copy)

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CardLadder

This card initially sold in January of 2019 for $291 and peaked on April 6th at $9,840, 3,281% growth. 

Since its peak sale, the card has lost 41% of its value. 

2. 2013 Prizm - Giannis Antetokounmpo

giannis
Jason Koeppel // ONE37pm

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a 4-time NBA All Star and two-time MVP. 

Antetokounmpo is ranked the 27th best all-time player by ESPN. 

2013 Prizm Base PSA 10 

Current Value: $2,014 

Current Population: 2,585

Monthly Population Growth: 1.26% (+40 copies)

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CardLadder

This card initially sold for $179.58 in December 2017 and peaked at $7,300 in August of 2020, 3,965% growth, but has lost 72% of its value since the peak price in August of 2020. 

2013 Prizm Silver PSA 10 

Current Value: $26,490

Current Population: 75 Monthly Population Growth: 0% (No new copies)

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CardLadder

This card initially sold for $1,750 in December of 2017 and hit a peak price of $42,930 in August 2020, 2,353% growth, but has lost 38% value since it's peak.

3. 2014 Prizm - Joel Embiid

embiid
Jason Koeppel // ONE37pm

Joel Embiid is a 4-time NBA All Star and is currently in the running for NBA MVP. 

He missed his first two playing seasons due to injury. 

2014 Prizm Base PSA 10 

Current Value: $716.67 

Current Population: 1,098

Monthly Population Growth: 3.2% (+34 copies)

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CardLadder

Embiid’s Prizm base is one of the few base cards on an upward swing. The card was originally sold in December of 2017 for $77.76 and peaked at $960 in February of 2021, 1,134% growth. 

The card is down 25% since its peak in February, but is up 6% from its last sale. 

2014 Prizm Silver PSA 10 

Current Value: $5,500

Current Population: 66 

Monthly Population Growth: 6.45% (4 new copies)

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CardLadder

The card originally sold for $760 in January of 2018 and peaked at $5,700 in March of 2021, 650% growth. The card is only down 3.5% since its peak and is trending upward as the Sixers are now in the second round of the playoffs against the Atlanta Hawks.  

4. 2015 Prizm - Karl Anthony-Towns and Devin Booker

towns booker
Jason Koeppel // ONE37pm

Karl Anthony-Towns is a former first overall pick who has two All-Star appearances.

2015 Prizm Base PSA 10 

Current Value: $203.75 

Current Population: 1,244 

Monthly Population Growth: 1.06% (+13 copies)

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CardLadder

This card sold for $46 in December of 2017 and hit a peak price of $363.40 in December of 2020, 689% growth, but has lost 43% of its value since it's peak. 

2015 Prizm Silver PSA 10 

Current Value: $898.88 

Current Population: 134 

Monthly Population Growth: 0% (No new copies)

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CardLadder

This card initially sold for $545.15 in December of 2017 and peaked in March at $1,400, 156% growth. 

The card has since lost 35% of its value since the peak. 

Devin Booker is a former 13th-overall pick with one All-Star appearance. 

2015 Prizm Base PSA 10 

Current Value: $665

Current Population: 1,429 

Monthly Population Growth: 3.93% (+54 copies)

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CardLadder

This card sold for $48.33 in December 2017 and peaked at $1,400 in August of 2020, 2,796% growth, but has lost 52% of its value since the peak. 

2015 Prizm Silver PSA 10 

Current Value: $4,025

Current Population: 168 

Monthly Population Growth: 2.44% (+5 copies)

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CardLadder

This card sold for $710 in December of 2017 and peaked at $7,055 in December of 2020, 893% growth, but has lost 42% of it's value since the peak. 

5. 2016 Prizm - Ben Simmons and Jamal Murray

simmons murray
Jason Koeppel

Ben Simmons is a former first overall pick who has two All-Star appearances.

2016 Prizm Base PSA 10 

Current Value: $228

Current Population: 1,302 

Monthly Population Growth: .39% (+5 copies)

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CardLadder

This card sold for $167.44 in December of 2017, and peaked at $567 in August 2020, 238% growth, but has lost 59% value since it's peak. 

2016 Prizm Silver PSA 10 

Current Value: $992.50

Current Population: 136 

Monthly Population Growth: 0% (No New Copies)

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CardLadder

This card first sold for $2,025 in December of 2017, and hit a peak price of $3,048 in December 2020, 50% growth, but has since lost 67% of it's value from the peak. 

Jamal Murray was the 7th overall pick and is currently playing for the Denver Nuggets. 

2016 Prizm Base PSA 10 

Current Value: $215

Current Population: 524 

Monthly Population Growth: 21% (+91 copies)

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CardLadder

This card initially sold for $17 in December of 2017 and peaked at $635 in December 2020, but has lost 66% of it's value since the peak. 

2016 Prizm Silver PSA 10 

Current Value: $1,500

Current Population: 155 

Monthly Population Growth: 1.97% (+3 copies)

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CardLadder

This card first sold for $148.50 in January 2018, and peaked at $1,918.33 in August of 2020, 1,191% growth, but has lost 21% of value since the peak. However, it has gone up 143% since it's last sale. 

6. 2017 Prizm - Jayson Tatum

tatum
Jason Koeppel // ONE37pm

Jayson Tatum is a former 3rd overall pick and is a 2-time All Star. 

2017 Prizm Base PSA 10 

Current Value: $402.50

Current Population: 5,060 

Monthly Population Growth: 3.67% (+179 copies)

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CardLadder

The card first sold for $73.69 in January of 2018, and peaked at $1,164.25 in August of 2020, 1,479% growth, but has lost 65% of it's value since the peak. 

2017 Prizm Silver PSA 10 

Current Value: $1,801

Current Population: 706 

Monthly Population Growth: 1.44% (+10 copies)

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CardLadder

This card sold for $1,101 in January of 2018 and hit a peak price of $4,600 in August of 2020, 317% growth, but has lost 60% of it's value since the peak. 

7. 2018 Prizm - Luka Doncic and Trae Young

luka trae
Jason Koeppel // ONE37pm

ESPN ranked Luka Doncic among the top 5 best current NBA players and is a 2-time All Star for the Dallas Mavericks. 

2018 Prizm Base PSA 10

Current Value: $844.11

Current Population: 17,045 

Monthly Population Growth: 2.2% (+377 new copies)

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CardLadder

This card initially sold for $98.58 in January of 2019, and hit a peak price of $2,146 in August of 2020, 2,089% growth, but has lost 60% of its value since the peak. 

2018 Prizm Silver PSA 10

Current Value: $5,858 

Current Population: 2,051 

Monthly Population Growth: 0.79% (+16 new copies)

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CardLadder

This card sold for $755 in December of 2018 and hit a peak price of $9,700 in March of 2021, 1,184% growth, but has lost 39% of it's value since the peak. 

Trae Young is a one-time All Star guard for the Atlanta Hawks. 

2018 Prizm Base PSA 10

Current Value: $313.84

Current Population: 9,466 

Monthly Population Growth: 3.88% (+354 new copies)

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CardLadder

This card sold for $27.99 in February of 2019 and peaked at $814 in January of 2021, 2,914% growth, but has lost 61% of its value since the peak. 

2018 Prizm Silver PSA 10

Current Value: $1,650

Current Population: 2,054 

Monthly Population Growth: 1.43% (+29 new copies)

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CardLadder

This card sold for $144.25 in January of 2019 and peaked at $3,800 in December of 2020, 2,538% growth, but has lost 56% of it's value since the peak.

8. 2019 Prizm - Zion Williams and Ja Morant

zion ja
Jason Koeppel // ONE37pm

Zion Williamson is the former 1st overall pick for the New Orleans Pelicans and has 1 All Star appearance. 

2019 Prizm Base PSA 10

Current Value: $447.48

Current Population: 17,686 

Monthly Population Growth: 5% (+904 new copies)

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CardLadder

The card initially sold for $561 in December of 2019 and hit a peak price of $986 in December of 2020, 75% growth, but has lost 54% of its value since the peak. 

2019 Prizm Silver PSA 10

Current Value: $3,250 

Current Population: 1,247

Monthly Population Growth: 2.98% (+40 new copies)

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CardLadder

The card initially sold for $2,350.26 in December of 2019 and peaked at $6,525 in December of 2020, 177% growth, but has lost 50% of it's value since the peak. 

Ja Morant is the former #2 overall pick for the Memphis Grizzlies. 

2019 Prizm Base PSA 10

Current Value: $265.03

Current Population: 16,193 

Monthly Population Growth: 6.64% (+108 new copies)

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CardLadder


This card sold for $291.85 in April of 2020 and peaked at $679 in January of 2021, 133% growth, but has lost 61% of it's value since the peak. 

2019 Prizm Silver PSA 10

Current Value: $1,712.50

Current Population: 1,091 

Monthly Population Growth: 4.9% (+51 new copies)

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CardLadder

This card sold for $1,072 in February of 2020 and peaked at $4,950 in January of 2021, 361% growth, but has since lost 65% of it's value since the peak. 

10. Key Takeaways

Jason Koeppel // ONE37pm

Population growth is rapidly increasing for modern cards. There are just (31) copies of Anthony Davis’ Prizm Silver PSA 10 versus (2,051) Luka Doncic’s Prizm Silver PSA 10's. 

Despite this population growth over time, all Prizm and Prizm Silvers experienced significant gains to the run-up of peak prices. However, all of these prices have retreated, some significantly. 

It’s reasonable to expect more recent cards to continue to grow in population, whereas some of the older populations remain steady. 

However, Davis’ Prizm Silver lost 86% of its value since peak prices, where Doncic’s Prizm Silver only lost 39%. 

Population matters, but so does player, team, accomplishments and popularity. 

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