The SlabStox Monthly Trading Card Market Report

From January 2021 until March 2021, the CL50 Index doubled in value — from 16,120 (1/3/21) to 33,200 (3/7/21) in just two months. It didn’t take long to correct in value. From March to June 2021, the CL50 dropped back to 16,800 (6/27/21).

“The CL50 Index hasn’t moved much over the last year,” McGill says. “The card market had a mania in 2021–a bull run unlike ever seen before. All those gains were wiped away.

“The bear market we’re seeing in other sectors, whether it is Bitcoin or the S&P taking a hit, the card market had about 14 months ago,” he explains. “What I see happening in other markets I remember watching it real-time in the card market a while ago.”

Here’s how the CL50 Index performed to other standard market indicators:

Andy Albert, owner of Indy Card Exchange, says boots-on-the-ground metrics prove there is still energy in the card market. 

“The optimism is still there and holding something tangible to collect or invest in will never go away,” Albert says, who recently organized the “Midwest Monster” card show that attracted nearly 4,000 card collectors to its first show in Indianapolis, June 17-18. 

“At our shop, there hasn’t been any dip or downturn in the number of people walking in and out,” he adds. “Obviously, people are spending money more wisely. The market is still strong but people are more selective in what they are buying.”

Buying the “surefire thing” with Patrick Mahomes and Luka Doncic was praised for years, but rubber hit the road for two of their high-end cards in June, as both of them experienced a card that lost ~$500,000 since the last time it sold. Mahomes’ 2017 National Treasures Gold RC Patch Auto /10 BGS 9.5 sold for $1,080,000 on 9/18/21, but recently sold for $480,000 on 6/16/22. Luka’s 2018 National Treasures Emerald RC Patch Auto /5 BGS 9 sold for $1,000,000 on 8/2/21, but recently sold for $504,000 on 6/16/22.

• Playoff misses. While -8% for the CL50 and -20% for the Mike Trout PSA 10 is a substantial monthly slide, it does understate how bad June has been for some of the cards in the market. Buying cards of players that rose in price due to playing at their peak performance proved to be an incredibly bad investment, as Jayson Tatum’s 2017 Prizm Blue RC /199 BGS 9.5 decreased 45% and Jordan Poole’s 2019 Prizm Fast Break Blue /175 RC PSA 10 decreased 52%.
• The stalled flip. Buying cards to flip within a 30-day period was next to impossible in June, as your only luck would have come with capitalizing on a hot playoff flip.
• What we’re feeling. People are selling if they: 

1. Need money for living expenses/savings
2. Are substantially in the green over the past three years or more
3. Want cash flow to make stronger plays at the The National
4. Don’t believe in a certain card long-term (generally base cards)
5. Want to re-invest into a different “down” card.

Baseball, while down 3% in June, has increased 3.5% for the year, outpacing other major sports—football (-8.28 / -13.40%) and basketball (-6.15% / -15.13%). 

Racing, fueled by the exponential growth of the F1 card market coming off the success of the first 2020 Topps Chrome F1 release last year, has grown the most this year (+19.22%). For June, F1 sales have leveled off, trending down a hair (-2.63%) as the season is well underway, with one team dominating (Red Bull).

“2022 feels like baseball’s turn in the spotlight,” McGill says. “2020 was the year of basketball, 2021 football exploded on the heels of Brady and the Bucs Championship. A lot of people seem to now be interested in baseball.”

Albert’s perspective is that the market, whether up or down, is largely driven by the strength of rookie classes in product sets. 

“Baseball is up because of how strong the rookie class is,” he says. “People are looking into baseball because they can buy affordable products and can get good rookie cards. Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodriguez—those guys are studs and with huge upside.

“Quarterbacks dominate the (football) marketplace,” Albert adds. “People who held and invested in the QB class of 2020 are very happy.”

Some specific category highlights from June: 

Each of these drivers converted an all-time high sale for a card.

1. Max Verstappen
   • 2020 Topps Chrome Red Auto /5 PSA 9/10 - $90,000 on 6/25/22 via Goldin
2. Mick Schumacher
   • 2021 Topps Chrome Superfractor RC Auto 1/1 PSA 10/10 - $39,600 on 6/25/22 via Goldin
3. Guanyu Zhou
   • 2021 Topps Chrome Superfractor Future Stars 1/1 PSA 8 - $18,000 on 6/4/22 via Goldin
4. Team Logo: Mercedes
   • 2020 Topps Chrome Mercedes Superfractor 1/1 PSA 7 - $13,200 on 6/25/22 via Goldin

Some of the most important modern Bowman Chrome cards sold in June. Here are the 5 top selling players.

1. Shohei Ohtani
   • 2018 Bowman Chrome Red Auto /5 PSA 9 - $240,000 on 6/16/22 via PWCC Premier Auction
2. Mike Trout
   • 2009 Bowman Chrome Orange Auto /25 BGS 9.5 - $228,000 on 6/25/22 via Goldin
3. Juan Soto
   1. 2016 Bowman Chrome Red Auto /5 PSA 7 - $144,000 on 6/16/22 via PWCC Premier Auction
4. Christian Hernandez
   • 2021 Bowman Chrome Red Auto /5 PSA 10 - $58,200 on 6/25/22 via Goldin
5. Marcelo Mayer
   • 2021 Bowman Chrome Red Auto /5 PSA 10/10 - $54,000 on 6/25/22 via Goldin

• F1 benchmarks. Not only was the Topps Chrome Red Auto /5 the most expensive Max card ever, but it also was the most expensive Topps Chrome F1 Auto to ever sell. While Mick Schumacher’s sale was his “rookie,” he actually had a 2020 Topps Chrome Superfractor Auto 1/1 which was an F2 Future Stars card. The 2021 Guanyu Zhou is in the same boat as the Mick, except Zhou’s card isn’t a rookie, it’s his 2nd F2 Future Stars card. That fact combined with the sale price ($18,000) makes for a head scratcher. The Mercedes Superfractor was the first F1 Team Logo card to cross 5-figures, with the next closest sale being the Mercedes Sapphire Red /5 PSA 10 ($9,000 on 5/21/22).
• Baseball slides. Bowman Chrome took a big hit from the peak prices, but not everything can go up forever, right? Ohtani’s Red decreased $72,000 (-23%) since the previous sale on 12/18/21. It was the exact same card (#3/5). Soto’s Red decreased $129,060 (-47%) since the previous sale 10/25/21. It was also the exact same card, and funny enough, matches the serial number on the Ohtani (#3/5).
• Prospect prospectus. Bowman Chrome Red autos of Christian Hernandez ($58,200) and Marcelo Mayer ($54,000) sold for huge price tags. Both have only played in A-ball or below, and neither have put up impressive numbers. There were multiple bidders willing to pay $50K-plus for their red autos. Remember, just because a player is young and has tools doesn't mean he is destined to be a star. This is a risky investment, but one that could pay off big. 

New to Card Ladder are Pre-war Vintage, Vintage, Modern and Ultra-Modern card indexes. What do these new categories tell us about the market? 

• Vintage cards are holding up in a down market
• Vintage and Pre-War Vintage cards are significantly outperforming the CL50 Index
• Modern cards overall have slipped dramatically in 2022 (-18.76%) 
• Ultra Modern cards have dropped double-digits in June due to a correction (-10.17%)

Vintage runs hot 

Why are Vintage and Pre-War Vintage cards holding strong? One hypothesis is the icons of this era are historically proven out and their cards are a limited resource. This makes vintage cards less risky in collectors’ eyes. Does this equate to gold, which typically runs hot during market downturns?  

“The way I look at it, the card market consists of three types of buyers—collectors, investors and gamblers,” Albert explains. “Vintage appeals to two of those three buckets—collectors and investors—because it creates stability. Twenty-five years ago the vintage market was based on emotions, but now with grading it is quantifiable and vintage is constant and stable over time.”

He also thinks it goes deeper. Vintage cards connect on an emotional level with collectors. 

“The younger generation can see the impact these players had,” Albert adds. “Jackie Robinson–you can watch on YouTube and see the impact he made. He’s an exception in every way because of the fact he broke the color barrier and is so well loved across every generation. I never see that going away.”

Some trending vintage cards in June include:

• 1955 Bowman Mickey Mantle PSA 4.5
• 1981 O-Pee-Chee Paul Coffey PSA 8
• 1957 Topps Bill Russell PSA 5

*Note: Vintage cards of the same grade can often vary in final sale price. Eye appeal is extremely important, and just because one grade sells for a certain amount does not mean the next sale of the same grade will match. That variance could contribute to certain cards rising in price quickly within one month.

Surface numbers don’t always tell the full story of what is happening in the current market. While Modern and Ultra-Modern cards are taking a hit overall, it isn’t indicative of the entire market in these categories. 

For example, the Base card market has been wiped out from its peaks. Players like Luka Doncic (-25%), Ronald Acuña Jr (-47%) and Kylian Mbappé (-47%) have all gotten crushed since the start of the year on their extremely high population Base RC PSA 10s. Keep in mind, cards like the Luka Doncic 2018 Prizm Base RC PSA 10 are still nearly triple the price they were three years ago.

Albert says these numbers reflect a market correction that was long overdue.

“There was nowhere to go from a year ago but down,” he says. “It comes back to the local card shops educating people and steering them away from Luka Doncic PSA base rookies and Zion Williamson base cards that were way overpriced. 

“​​People are spending money on the right things now, buying National Treasures, Flawless and low-number Prizm color,” he says. “They’re still spending money—what is dragging those categories down is the standard, everyday flagship stuff. It’s finding its level because it dropped so hard and so fast.”

Nine seasons after being picked No. 1 in the 2014 NBA Draft, Andrew Wiggins has made the most of his shot at redemption. He earned a starting spot on the Western Conference All-Star team (to the dismay of some fans), and in the Finals, he played a key role for the Golden State Warriors, including a team leading 26-point Game 5 on the way to the Warriors fourth title in 8 years.  For a player labeled as “lazy” and “lackadaisical” for most of his NBA career, Wiggins put on a playoff show on both ends of the court against some of the best players in the league. Now, he has a ring.

Paul Goldschmidt ended May with a Cardinals record that eclipsed some of the best hitters in the game. He finished the month with 23 extra base hits, topping Stan Musial (1954) and Albert Pujols (2003), who each previously held the record with 20. In June, Goldy has continued his hot hitting with a team-leading and career-best slash line of .342/.424/.630 with a 1.054 OPS. Holders of Goldschmidt's 2011 Topps Update Rookie PSA 10 have been rewarded with his strong performance. It’s increased 12.91% over the last 30 days, with the most recent sale at $175. (6/28/22).

Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar has been nothing short of amazing during the Avalanche playoff run. Back when they clinched a spot in the Stanley Cup Finals, he was praised by Wayne Gretzky. “The Great One” compared the 23-year-old Makar to Bobby Orr, considered the greatest defenseman of all-time. Makar has led the Avs throughout the playoffs with 29 points on 8 goals and 21 assists. Makar’s 2019 Upper Deck Young Guns Rookie PSA 10 has skyrocketed in the last year, growing 150.64%. Makar is already a Calder Trophy winner, as he was the top NHL rookie in 2019-20. He also won the Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup at age 23.