I am truly not a believe in the Dolphins, although I probably should be at this point. But who have they actually beat? WHO!
They beat the Jets twice (0-12), the Chargers (3-9), the Jaguars (1-11), and the Joe-Burrow-less Bengals (2-9-1).
Good wins? They beat the Rams (in the flukiest win of all time - defensive & special team touchdowns while logging close to 300 yards less than LA), smacked San Francisco (as SF was floundering), and had a solid win against the Cardinals, perhaps their best overall game of the season.
Nonetheless, that strength of schedule is POOR (and they lost to Seattle, Buffalo, New England, Denver), and with the red hot Chiefs coming into South Beach, I am compelled to fade them.
Per the Action Network, the Chiefs on the road is something we simply must bet. Why? Andy Reid has been the most profitable road warrior in the league since joining the Chiefs in 2013, going 39-21-1 ATS. Juicy.
Under the hood, the numbers match up for the Chiefs as well: #1 offensive DVOA compared to #19 for MIA; #18 (but #13 against the pass, #30 against the run) compared to MIA #11 on defense.
Miami has been great against the pass this season (and are for sure a talented squad), but once again, WHO have they faced?
The only QB they’ve faced on the same level of Mahomet was potentially Week 4 against Seattle, where Russell Wilson went off for 360 yards and 2 TDs. Nice.
The rest of the QBs they’ve played have been largely mediocre (Jags, Jets x2, 49ers, Broncos, Bengals) or run-first (Patriots, Buffalo, Arizona).
“Good QBs”? They stifled rookie QB Justin Herbert, but Herbert isn’t Mahomes.
This is for sure a public play, but it feels like it’s time to end this mirage that is the Miami Dolphins.
That’s it, baby. Week 14.
We live. We bet. We die.