A beautiful day in the bay is always a treat. A 3 pm PST kickoff provides just the perfect amount of time for fans to wake up well-rested, recovered, enjoy steak and eggs and get the beers cracked, before strolling into Levi’s stadium ready to unless a hellish fury onto Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. This hellish fury will be merciless, relentless, and will have Aaron Rodgers joining the old-guard of Tom Brady and Drew Brees on the couch, rather than waltzing into Super Bowl weekend.
The Packers are a good team. I had them to win the division. I’ve bet on them a lot this year, with strong results. They’ve even played the 49ers once, and lost triumphantly by 29, an outcome I do not think was a fluke.
This 49ers' defense has been fierce all year, making great teams look like JV squads. Rodgers will be under pressure all game, and he simply does not have the weapons to bail him out as he has in previous years. Outside of Devante Adams, his WR options are poor and that's being kind.
A few stats I love via TeamRankings PowerRatings/Stats:
- The 49ers are ranked 1st in home games, compared to the Packers at 12th for away games.
- While neither has had grueling schedules, the 49ers had the 10th ranked Strength of Schedule compared to the Packers at 17th.
Doubling down on stats, let’s dive into Football Outsiders’ efficiency ratings:
- Offensively, these teams rank close with the 49ers at seventh compared to the Packers at eighth.
- Here’s the big kicker, defense: the 49ers second in defensive efficiency compared to 15th for Green Bay.
This Packers' offense has been at it’s best when Aaron Jones gets the ball, something that certainly did not happen in their first matchup, as he ran for a mere 38 yards on 12 carries.
Pressure should be constant on Rodgers, and the 49ers lock-down secondary should be strong enough to overcompensate for Aaron Jones.
The line at 7.5 is a little low when considering the 37-8 score first time around, but what’s that saying again? Defense wins championships?
Defense wins championships. Lack of offense doesn’t win championships.
The 49ers are second in points per game. The Packers are 14th. The 49ers played a tougher schedule. The 49ers will roll. I’ll be rolling with the 49ers -7.5 and am considering buying the hook to get us to -7 -120.
Bet by bet, we build.