NFL Week 10 Gambling Picks

Our two best bets, plus a bonus quick-hitter in case you feel like winning more money

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“I been gone for a minute, now I'm back at the jump-off.” - Lil Kim

I’m back after one week off from the world of ONE37pm. Hope you didn’t miss me and my picks too much.

Without further ado, I’ve got two picks I love for Week 10 as well as a quick-hitter. Let’s dive in.

Tampa Bay -4.5 -110 (37 percent of bets)

We’re backing Famous Jameis this week in what is shaping up to be a shootout. 

The Bucs haven’t had much trouble scoring as of late, coming off a 34-point effort on the road, and I love their offense vs. this sieve of a defense. On paper, Tampa Bay’s offense is middle of the pack in terms of offensive efficiency, but the duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin should be a nightmare for the porous secondary (28th in pass defense efficiency via Football Insiders). 

While both of these teams rank similarly at the macro offensive efficiency stats, the biggest delta comes from the defensive side of things, where TB ranks first in rush defense. Patrick Murray has struggled passing on the road all season, and I’m expecting more of the same this week. 

Granted, Murray presents a unique threat with his legs, I like Winston to limit his wreckless turnovers and cover the 4.5

New Orleans -13.5 -110 (57 percent of bets)

Brees is back, and I’m all for it, and I’ll keep this one short & sweet:

  • New Orleans is sixth in defensive efficiency with the seventh most challenging schedule. Juicy.
  • Atlanta is 30th in defensive efficiency, including 31st in pass defense. Hello, Drew!
  • Atlanta is 19th in offensive efficiency; New Orleans eighth: checkmate (Football Outsiders).

Taking the Saints here is certainly a touch square (money splits point nicely to the Falcons), considering that only two of their last 18 meetings have been decided by 14 or more points (Action Network), but with a hobbled Matt Ryan (limited practice, should play as of now) and a healthy Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, and Tre’Quan Smith, the Saints should continue to fire on all cylinders in a game that, when scheduled, should have been pivotal for the division.

I don’t think it’s pretty, but I do think the Saints pull this one out.

Quick hit: Green Bay/Carolina Under 47 -110 (42 percent of bets)

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