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NFL Week 11 Picks

Some under-the-radar bets are the ticket to the bank this weekend

TRUBISKY UNIVERSAL
Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The cold weather has finally broken through. Wind chills alone send shivers straight through the soul. 

 

There’s only one thing to keep us warm: hot, hot bets. Get the oven going, let’s crank the heat for Week 11.

Colts -2.5 (43 percent of bets)

Nick Foles is back, and I couldn’t really care less. Mustache Minshew was serviceable, leading the Jags to a 5-4-1 record ATS. 

 

Foles played in one game and looked great: 5 for 8, 75 yards, 1 touchdown, but this was against a porous Kansas City defense. Minshew came in and went 22 for 25, 275 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception. 

 

If the Colts were -2.5 with Minshew at the helm, who would you take? Me: Why yes, I would! With Foles, I’m banking on a touch of rust, a lack of chemistry and a good showing from Jacoby Brissett back on the field for an ugly win and cover. 

 

The true X-factor here stems from the (lack of) Jaguars defense. This team game up 160 yards to... Carlos Hyde... a week before their bye. Khalil Mack should feast, Brissett is mobile and even without T.Y. Hilton, I love the Colts in a bounce back effort after dropping one in South Beach.

Bears +7 -120 (64 percent of bets)

I’m buying this one up to 7 here. 

 

You know what is supremely interesting to me on this one? Jared Goff over his last 16 games has a 17/16 TD/INT ratio with 16 fumbles. NOT GOOD. Mitchell Trubisky? 20 touchdowns, 9 interceptions.

 

Fascinating. Has Trubisky looked mediocre this year? No doubt about it, but perhaps Goff has regressed a touch to his true self. 

 

The Rams rank 21st in offensive efficiency, with the Bears just behind them at 26th. Hmm, a wash.

 

Defensively: The Rams and Bears are tied for fourth. 

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Football Outsiders

Patriots -3.5 (80 percent of bets)

Supremely public bet, sure. Will I fade Tom Brady and the boys after a loss? No. No I won’t.

 

Brady as a favorite of a touchdown or less? 28-3 ATS. 

 

Slightly outdated stats I also love, via the Action Network:

  • Brady off a loss? 29-10 ATS

  • Brady off a loss on the road? 19-3 ATS

  • Brady off a loss as a favorite? 19-10 ATS

  • Brady off a loss getting 50 percent or more bets? 21-9 ATS

  • Brady off a loss in a non-division game? (22-4)

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