Against The Spread: Sheasby's Week 10 NFL Best Bets

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Week 8 was a bloodbath. Week 9 was a bloodbath. Week 10? Off to a good start, after we cashed the Colts -1 on Thursday night (and ended the night 4-2). Can we keep the momentum into the weekend, as we watch Tiger (hopefully) win back-to-back green jackets? Boy I hope so. I am SALIVATING for Sunday. Here’s my top 3 plays:

Green Bay Packers -13 vs Jacksonville Jaguars

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Aaron Rodgers vs. Jake Luton. Is that not enough?

Fine - Luton looked decent against the Texans last week (304 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), and he orchestrated an almost-game-tying (and a OMWB spread-busting) drive. That drive? 67 yards passing. 

Remove a prevent-d driven drive, and his numbers look a touch more pedestrian, no? 

237 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT?

Now we’re talking about the Jake Luton I’d expect to see this week against a take-no-prisoners Green Bay team that is ranked 7th in the league in point differential (this Jags team? 30th!).

There’s a lot to love about Green Bay outside of their big names: 

  • GB is ranked #2 in offensive efficiency
  • GB is ranked 10 spots higher in defensive efficiency than JAX (21st vs. 32nd)

So let’s keep this simple: we have the #2 rated offensive going against the #32 ranked defense, and GB has a defense that’s ranked 10 spots higher going against Luton?

That’s enough for me. Green Bay -13.

New York Giants +4 vs Philadelphia Eagles

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I love pain. The New York Football Giants have let me down (regardless of whether I’m backing them or fading them) ALL SEASON. 

Even yet, as I scour the NFL board, I can’t help but love the number: +3.

To be frank, I expected it to be bigger. The Eagles, naturally, have also looked terrible this year, but they get their #1 RB back on the field this week, and have put together a nice two game win streak after almost pulling off an incredible comeback against the Ravens.

In addition, the Eagles resume isn’t actually THAT bad:

  • Beat SF by 5
  • Lost to the Steelers by 9
  • Lost to the Ravens by 2
  • Beat the Giants
  • Beat the Cowboys

Honing into the first matchup against the NYG (22-21 win by PHI), we also see that the line closed at a juiced -3.5. The lack of movement (-3.5 -110 to -4 -110) there gives me confidence that Vegas is expecting a very similar outcome, regardless of the underlying stats.

The underlying stats?

  • PHI is ranked 11th in defensive efficiency, compared to 22nd for the NYG
  • PHI is ranked 30th in offensive effeminacy compares to 26th for the giants

Is the 10 spot delta (significant) really only worth 4 points? Apparently.

Looking at yards/play, we see less of a discrepancy:

  • PHI gains 5.0 Y/P on offense compared to 4.9 for NYG.
  • PHI allows 5.0 Y/P on defense compared to 5.6 for NYG

Same with points/play:

  • PHI gets .350 P/P on offense compared to .306 for NYG.
  • PHI allows .376 Y/P on defense compared to .378 for NYG

I love the defensive points/play similarity.

Last thing I love: the NYG are scoring only 45.83% of the time in the Red Zone (terrible), but Philadelphia defense is allowing opponents to score at a 69.23% clip. Good for the Giants.

The Eagles are scoring at a 64% clip in the red zone, but the Giants are allowing teams to score only 52.78% of the time. Good for the Giants.

Bonus: Ravens 1H -3

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