Week 7 of the NFL is upon us. The season is approaching the halfway mark. Do we finally have enough data to know who a team is truly? Probably not, although the Giants proved on Thursday Night Football that they are indeed still the Giants. Let’s dive into my two best bets this week.
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Against The Spread: Sheasby's Week 7 NFL Best Bets
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By: Geoff Sheasby
Published Oct 23, 2020
Buffalo Bills -11.5
Another week, another fade of the Jets. The Jets remain in freewill. Adam Gase still somehow isn’t fired. Roddy White (ex-NFL WR who played for the Falcons) came out and said that if the Jets go 0-16 (or at least secure the worst record in the league to get the #1 pick in the NFL Draft), that Trevor Lawrence should stay at Clemson for another year rather than get drafted by the franchise. Can things get much worse?
The answer seems to be yes. Coming into last week, the Jets (as pointed out by my dear friend @TheGreatFoosini, were not covering by an average of 10.9 points per game. Not losing by an average of 10.9 points per game, but MISSING THE SPREAD by that much. Cue Week 6 - the Jets lose 24-0 and don’t cover by 14 points, only making that number worse. Yikes.
The biggest question this week: is 11.5 points finally enough? My answer: no.
The Bills are coming off one of their worst games of the year, with Josh Allen looking wildly inefficient (more like his usual self? hmm…), but if there’s ever a get-right spot, it’s against, you guessed it, the Jets.
The Jets rank 31st in terms of offensive efficiency, 24th in terms of defense efficiency & 29th in opponent points per game.
The Bills? Not great on defense (29th in terms of defensive efficiency, but with the 12th ranked strength of schedule), but are the 11th ranked team in terms of offensive efficiency.
I’m looking for this offense to score early and often and their defense to be just good enough to get us to another Jets no-cover.
Houston +3.5
A players' revolt has potentially changed the season for the Houston Texans. The Revolt? Of course, when the players ousted Bill O’Brien! Since then, this offense has gone from averaging 21.75 points/game (4 games) to 33 points/game (2 games) - not bad!
What do I love about Houston? A lot of things.
- They’re criminally underrated at 1-5, and the short line reflects their true skill.
- They have the #5 Strength of Schedule so far, losing to some of the best teams in the league (Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Titans, and the Vikings, while inconsistent good enough).
- They’re finally utilizing their entire offense, and Brandin Cooks is playing like Brandin Cooks of old (first 4 games: 34.5 YGP; last 2: 114.5 YPG).
What do I not love about Houston? Well, they’re playing a Green Bay team that just got absolutely hosed by the Tom Brady Bucs.
When we look at the Packers schedule, on paper, it looks incredibly challenging: solid win against the Vikings, smashed the Lions, beat the Saints, beat the Falcons. But these teams, while historically good (excluding the Lions, of course), have been falling FAR short of expectations. Thus when I look at Green Bay’s stats, I can’t help but think they’re overinflated, ranking 4th in offensive efficiency, 3rd in points per game.
Alas, the chink in the armor: they’re currently ranked 30th in defensive efficiency and 20th in opponent points per game.
An overinflated offense due to an oasis of a schedule combined with an inefficient defense against a team that must win with a short line? Texans +3.5 all day.
That’s it, folks, two best plays of the week.
A few others I like: Rams -6, Washington Football Team +1, and the Lions +2.5. We live. We bet. We die.
Your friend,
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