NFL Power Rankings and Prop Bets: Week 1

Kicking off my week 1 NFL Power rankings in the top spot are the defending Super Bowl champions. The Rams look poised to make a run at repeating. QB Matthew Stafford was the missing piece for head coach Sean McVay and a Rams offense that fell short in the Super Bowl three years prior. Cooper Kupp is coming off a 145 catch season and free agent WR Allen Robinson enters what is by far the most favorable quarterback situation of his career. Three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald and CB Jalen Ramsey remain top ten players to lead the defense.

The Bills enter the 2022 season as the current favorites to win the Super Bowl according to DraftKings and at the top of many people's NFL power rankings. The team inked pass rusher Von Miller to a six-year $120M contract in hopes of finally getting through the Chiefs, falling just seconds short in 2021.

The spotlight is on QB Josh Allen, who enters his first season without offensive coordinator Brian Daboll following back to back MVP caliber seasons. 

While Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes remain favorites in the AFC West, the rest of the division is quickly stockpiling talent and closing the gap.

Patrick Mahomes is coming off a down year by his standards as defenses began to implement more two high safety looks. Now that Tyreek Hill is out of the equation, what will the offense look like in 2022? Tight end Travis Kelce is still a matchup nightmare on offense and the defense has been able to play at a high level under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.

Aaron Rodgers to Devante Adams was the best QB to WR connection in all of football by a mile. How does the Packers offense replace Adams without a true #1 weapon? If anybody can make it work, it is Rodgers.

RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon provide a nice one-two punch out of the backfield to lean on as well.

After losing three of four to end the season and falling short of the playoffs in 2021, the Chargers added a pair of All-Pro players in CB J.C. Jackson and LB Khalil Mack.

With surrounding help, expect DE Joey Bosa to shatter his previous high of 12.5 sacks in a season. Justin Herbert has proven he can hang with other top five quarterbacks and should only improve entering year three. Watch out for the Chargers to make a run at the division and climb the NFL power rankings in the coming weeks.

The Bengals hit their stride in January and went from six combined wins in 2019-2020, to a Super Bowl appearance in 2021. While the team will no longer catch anybody by surprise, it doesn’t appear that Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are poised to slow down.

The Bengals have become a fun team to watch and possess enough talent and confidence to avoid a letdown season. 

For an organization that seemingly does everything right, the Ravens have somehow allowed the contract saga with QB Lamar Jackson to approach week 1. Contract talks are unlikely to impact Jackson and a Ravens team motivated to bounce back from a frustrating 8-9 season. John Harbaugh has finished below .500 in just one other season since taking over in 2008.

Free safety Marcus Williams inked a $70M contract this offseason, joining a Ravens secondary that is as deep with talent as any group in football. The Ravens will push the Bengals atop the AFC North. However, a loss on the road in week 1 to the New York Jets would send them spiraling down my week 2 NFL power rankings list.

At some point Tom Brady has to lose it. Yes, I’ve said that every year since he was 35, and I’ve been wrong all ten seasons that followed. The Bucs offensive line is already banged up with three new starters along the interior to start the season. The combination of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones at wide receiver is scary, but Brady has also missed a large chunk of training camp dealing with personal matters. Todd Bowles has proven to be a great defensive coordinator but must now prove he can lead an entire team after taking over for Bruce Arians as head coach. 

The Colts have drafted as well as any organization over the past few years and should comfortably win the AFC South this season. Matt Ryan continues the line of veteran quarterbacks in Indy and should benefit from a dominant offensive line. Quenton Nelson anchors a unit that helped produce 1,811 yards on the ground for RB Jonathan Taylor in 2021. With a defense that plays fast and physical, the Colts will be a tough out in January. 

The 49ers have the team to make it to another Super Bowl, but do they have the quarterback? Second-year QB Trey Lance should benefit from sitting and watching as a rookie, and from a QB friendly offense under Kyle Shanahan. If all else fails, Jimmy G is still waiting in the wings. The team was able to avoid disaster and reach a new three-year $71.5M deal with WR Deebo Samuel. The growth of Lance is the difference between early playoff exit and possible Super Bowl contender in San Francisco. 

The early injury to OT Tyron Smith is a major blow for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense. The offense is already looking to replace WR Amari Cooper, and WR Michael Gallup is still working back to full health following a torn ACL last year. This could be the last chance for head coach Mike McCarthy to earn the trust of owner Jerry Jones. CB Trevon Diggs and LB Micah Parsons lead an exciting young defense that should keep Dallas in games as the offense sorts through changes.

The NFC East will likely come down to the final week or two of the season, as the Eagles have quickly built the potential for a high-powered offense around QB Jalen Hurts. Hurts already creates a number of problems for defenses with his athleticism. Now the addition of wide receiver A.J. Brown paired with Devonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert create an entirely new set of matchup nightmares. The Eagles should have no problems getting after the quarterback as well with a versatile group of pass rushers.

Russell Wilson hopes to replicate the work of Peyton Manning by cementing his legacy with a second Super Bowl win in Denver. The move vaults Denver into instant postseason discussion while adding another elite QB to the AFC.

WR Jerry Jeudy has posted just 90 catches, 1,323 yards, and 3 touchdowns over first two seasons in Denver, and could top those in 2022 alone with stability at quarterback. The defense has the pieces to be a top ten unit but the team has a long way to go before topping KC/L.A. in the West.

I would normally laugh at the idea of getting behind Kirk Cousins having a big season and taking Minnesota on a run through the playoffs. At some point Cousin’s numbers deserve some respect and the team will make a leap. Over four years in Minnesota, Cousins has a line of 124 TDs and 36 INTs with 68.3% completions.

Dalvin Cook is a top five running back and Justin Jeffferson is on a path to enter that conversation amongst wide receivers, if he isn't there already. Watch out for the Vikings as new head coach Kevin O’Connell should infuse some energy in place of Mike Zimmer. 

With a fairly easy schedule in their first 6 games, don't be surprised if the Vikings climb in to the top 10 in the not-so-distant future on my NFL power rankings list.

QB Derek Carr quietly continues to get better every single year and rarely gets recognition. Expect another leap with the addition of All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams. The Raiders made another bold move to sign pass rusher Chandler Jones, who gives them a force opposite Maxx Crosby on the defensive line. It is hard to look at the talent on this roster and not assume ten wins. Then again, there is a chance they may struggle to avoid last place in arguably the NFL’s most talented division.

The Cardinals will look to overcome a six-game suspension to star WR DeAndre Hopkins to begin the season. Hopefully QB Kyler Murray has put in the study time. The new $230M contract signed by Murray this offseason has raised eyebrows with language requiring independent study. Pressure is on head coach Kliff Kingsbury, who has finished with a record below .500 in the second half of every season that he has been a head coach (including college) dating back 2013. 

The Dolphins continue to hype up third-year QB Tua Tagovailoa in spite of seemingly always planning for options to replace him. The addition of WR Tyreek Hill adds another dynamic to the offense when paired with second-year playmaker Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins have speed that few teams can match, however, there is no guarantee Tua can either.

The pieces are there on both sides of the ball for head coach Mike McDaniel to enter year one with heightened expectations.

There are few examples in sports that define consistency better than head coach Mike Tomlin, who has won at least 8 games every season since becoming Steelers head coach in 2007.

While there are questions at quarterback, it is hard to bet against Tomlin finding a way to make some magic happen with Mitch Trubisky, or rookie Kenny Pickett, replacing Big Ben at QB.

T.J. Watt produced 22.5 sacks and earned Defensive Player of the Year in 2021. WR George Pickens could be the steal of the 2022 draft, creating a formidable trio with Chase Claypool and Dionte Johnson. Expect the team to lean on RB Najee Harris and the ground game early in the season. 

The Saints looked internally to replace Sean Payton after 16 seasons, going with long-time defensive coordinator Dennis Allen.

Allen served as DC under Payton since 2015 and should be able to maintain a similar structure with a talented roster. It appears RB Alvin Kamara will avoid suspension until 2023 and WR Michael Thomas looks healthy for week one.

The biggest questions remain at quarterback. Can Jameis Winston avoid the costly turnovers that have plagued his career? If so, the Saints could eat plenty of Ws in 2022 and climb this NFL power rankings list very quickly.

A Bill Belichick coached team starting off the season ranked #21 in the NFL power rankings? 2021 was up there with any of Bill Belichick’s top coaching performances, taking rookie QB Mac Jones to a 10-7 season and playoff appearance. The loss of OC Josh McDaniels and CB J.C. Jackson will certainly have an impact. The Patriots have struggled to draft players over the past few years and at some point that catches up to any team. It would be foolish to completely count out New England, but a path to another ten wins seems unlikely.

The talent in the AFC may simply be too good for the Titans run of success under head coach Mike Vrabel to continue. The clock is ticking on QB Ryan Tannehill after a strong preseason from rookie Malik Willis. The Titans will not only look to replace WR A.J. Brown on offense, but top pass rusher Harold Landry recently tore his ACL in practice and will miss the season. It is hard not to trust RB Derrick Henry to do what he always does and put the team on his back, but the team may lack any real threats to give him a true chance. 

Any football fan had to feel good for Cleveland when they unlocked the beer fridge with their first win in 635 days in 2018. It was an even bigger party as they snapped an 18-year playoff drought in 2020. The vibes have certainly changed with QB Deshaun Watson set to serve an 11 game suspension. DE Myles Garrett and RB Nick Chubb hope to provide enough firepower to keep the team in contention under QB Jacoby Brissett. 

Head coach Ron Rivera has managed seven wins during each season of his first two seasons in Washington while dealing with a revolving door at quarterback. Carson Wentz played well in his lone season with the Colts, but also benefited from a great run game. The Commanders offensive line will look to replace All-Pro guard Brendon Scherff after seven seasons. Questions also linger about the return of DE Chase Young (torn ACL last season) who will begin the season on IR. 

QB Baker Mayfield and head coach Matt Rhule are entering make or break seasons. This is likely the last opportunity for Mayfield to prove himself as a starter, and Rhule is unlikely to get another season if the Panthers fail to make the playoffs. A healthy Christian McCaffrey is everything to the Panthers success, as evidenced by their 3-0 start last season and subsequent struggles following his hamstring injury. 

General Manager Joe Douglas has added some impact players over the past two years that will restore some credibility to the Jets. How quickly it all comes together is another question. 2022 draft picks Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall have impressed this summer, along with second-year wideout Elijah Moore. The second-year tandem of head coach Robert Saleh and QB Zach Wilson remain the team’s biggest question marks and have much to prove. Losing OT Mekhi Becton for the season, and possibly Wilson to start the first several weeks, was a rough way to start. 

Although the Lions are still likely a year or two away from being in the playoff conversation, Jared Goff brings enough experience to keep them in games. Second overall pick DE Aidan Hutchinson is the early favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year and 2020 third overall pick CB Jeff Okudah looks healthy after missing nearly all of 2021 following an Achilles injury. The Lions may lose a lot of games but don’t expect to see too many lopsided scores under fiery head coach Dan Campbell.

The Jacksonville Jaguars shelled out more money in guarantees this offseason than any team in history. That is the cost of cleansing a mess created with the Urban Meyer experiment, while also giving second-year QB Trevor Lawrence a fresh chance to shine. Doug Pederson brings a steadying presence and Super Bowl winning pedigree to a locker room in need of leadership.

The excitement surrounding second-year quarterback Justin Fields is only mitigated by a lackluster Bears offensive line and supporting cast. New head coach Matt Eberflus brings four years of success as Colts defensive coordinator, but has already inherited his first challenge in restoring the team's relationship with LB Roquan Smith. Smith sat out training camp and requested a trade after a failure to come to terms on a new long-term contract. 

New head coach Brian Daboll will look to replicate the success he had as offensive coordinator with the Buffalo Bills and flip the career path of fourth-year quarterback Daniel Jones. This is likely Jones’ final opportunity to earn a future with the Giants after the team declined his fifth-year option. Spotlight is on wide receiver Kenny Golladay entering year two with the Giants (4yrs/$72M) still searching for his first touchdown after 14 games without one in 2021.

The loss of QB Russell Wilson signals the start of a new era in Seattle. Geno Smith will get an opportunity to revive his career at quarterback and wide receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf should provide some relief. Pressure shifts to head coach Pete Carroll and the defense. The Seahawks traded two first-round picks in return for safety Jamal Adams, but Adams has struggled in coverage while dealing with injuries. The Seahawks could certainly use an infusion of draft picks to help a depleted roster entering unfamiliar territory. 

Tight end Kyle Pitts is so damn good, but getting him the football could be a major problem. Rookie QB Desmond Ridder had some impressive moments this summer  and could eventually push current starter Marcus Mariota for playing time should the season unravel.

The Texans start the season dead last in my NFL power rankings. Fourth-round pick Dameon Pierce has opened eyes all summer for the Texans. Expect teams to key on the rookie running back early with Davis Mills under center and a below average supporting cast. General manager Nick Caserio and head coach Lovie Smith are likely in for some rough seasons before things improve in Houston.

1. Von Miller. Over 0.75 sacks (+165)

I'll take the plus odds on Von Miller to land a sack on Thursday night against his former team. Miller may not be the same force he ones was, but he can still pressure the quarterback with the best of them. 

2. Gabriel Davis over 4.5 receptions (+130)

It is tempting to buy the juice on Stefon Diggs over 5.5 receptions (-145) but he is sure to see plenty of Jalen Ramsey in coverage. Although Ramsey continues to work his way back to 100% following offseason surgery, Davis should still see plenty of targets opposite Diggs. Davis will also benefit from a favorable matchup against a much smaller CB in Troy Hill. 

3. Christian McCaffrey over 112.5 combined rushing and receiving yards. (-115)

McCaffrey is a strong candidate for "Comeback Player of the Year" and appears to be in phenomenal shape to start the season. The Browns defense will present a challenge but their offense could struggle to stay on the field. Expect plenty of touches for McCaffrey.

4. Patrick Mahomes over 305.5 passing yards (-115)

The Chiefs week one contest at Arizona is the highest over/under (53.5) of any game to start the way. The Cardinals should be able to keep the game close enough where Mahomes is throwing for all four quarters. 

5. George Kittle over 47.5 receiving yards (-115)

A good tight end is every quarterback's best friend. Expect Trey Lance to lean heavily on his All-Pro tight end in just his third career start.