NFL Week 12 Gambling Picks

Easy money this week somehow involves the Browns

jimmy g universal
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

We're back. You want some easy money? Let me show you the light. 

Here are my gambling picks for NFL week 12, betting against the spread.

Cleveland -10.5 (-110, 38 percent of bets)

This is a big line for a team that’s been the definition of inconsistency this year, but that’s okay. 

Miami is still getting WAY too much love after beating the Jets & banged up Colts, and so I’m backing Baker & Co. at home. 

Why? A few things.

  • Cleveland is due for a regression here. At 3-6-1 ATS, they should trend north to close out the season. 
  • Miami is 5-5 ATS (where they should be), but 3-1 as away underdogs. I’m looking for that to regress.
  • Sharps seem to agree that opening line of -9 was too little; with three percent of bets, the line has moved 1.5 points in favor of Cleveland. 
  • That line movement is more impactful especially considering the Browns are without one of their best defensive players. 

screen shot 2019 11 21 at 10 47 59 am
Courtesy of Football Outsiders

Miami is quite literally that bad, even if Cleveland hasn’t been that good.

Only concern: motivation has seemed to play a part in the Browns games outcomes. They’re 2-0 ATS in conference with an average cover delta of 16.8 points. All games, that delta is at -3.3. 

Nonetheless, the Dolphins need to lose, so why not get blown out?

Let the Browns eat, -10.5.

49ers -3 (45 percent of bets)

This should be a fantastic game. I’ve wrestled with how legit the 49ers really are, as they have had one of the easiest schedules to date. Meanwhile, the Packers are top 10 in schedule strength, and have battled some great teams (Chiefs, Vikings, Cowboys lead the pack, but could argue that wins over the Lions, Broncos & Bears are also above average) and won thus far. 

The 49ers, on the other hand, have at least handled most of their opponents as they should, blowing out the mediocre teams and battling the good ones. An OT loss to the Seahawks isn’t too concerning. 

In this game, I’m looking for a few regressions from ATS trends:

  • Green Bay is 7-3 ATS on the season, which should regress.
  • SF is 5-4-1 ATS, right where they should be; but 1-3-1 in their last 5. They’re ‘due’ for a cover.
  • Green Bay is 3-1 ATS on the road, due for a slight regression.

I also lean towards the 49ers from team efficiency standpoints, even when factoring in the 49ers weaker SOS. The Niners lead the Packers in points per play offensively, as well as limiting points per play defensively. 

This should be a close one, but -3 or better, I’ll be on the 49ers.

Autobet of the week: Patriots -6.5 (63 percent of bets)

I will not not bet the Patriots at this point—this should be something I’ve deployed for years—but here we are.

In a league where parity is the norm, the Patriots are consistently great. You know this. I know this. Your mother and your father know this. Hell, even your grandparents at this point and their second cousins are probably aware of this, watching from the sky above. The Patriots have had 19 straight winning seasons, counting this one. That’s insane.

Anyway, back to betting. Brady is his career covers at a 59 percent clip. That’s outrageous. 

The Patriots are regression proof. They are the closest thing to a “lock” or a “sure thing” the league has ever seen. Why stop now?

7-3 this season ATS. 4-1 last 5 ATS. 3-1 ATS at home. Back at home, under a touchdown favorite?

I’ll take it. Patriots -6.5, and then whatever the spread is next week, Patriots then too. And probably the next. 

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