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Against The Spread: Sheasby's Week 10 NFL Best Bets

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Week 8 was a bloodbath. Week 9 was a bloodbath. Week 10? Off to a good start, after we cashed the Colts -1 on Thursday night (and ended the night 4-2). Can we keep the momentum into the weekend, as we watch Tiger (hopefully) win back-to-back green jackets? Boy I hope so. I am SALIVATING for Sunday. Here’s my top 3 plays:

Green Bay Packers -13 vs Jacksonville Jaguars

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Aaron Rodgers vs. Jake Luton. Is that not enough?

 

Fine - Luton looked decent against the Texans last week (304 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), and he orchestrated an almost-game-tying (and a OMWB spread-busting) drive. That drive? 67 yards passing. 

 

Remove a prevent-d driven drive, and his numbers look a touch more pedestrian, no? 

 

237 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT?

 

Now we’re talking about the Jake Luton I’d expect to see this week against a take-no-prisoners Green Bay team that is ranked 7th in the league in point differential (this Jags team? 30th!).

 

There’s a lot to love about Green Bay outside of their big names: 

 

  • GB is ranked #2 in offensive efficiency

  • GB is ranked 10 spots higher in defensive efficiency than JAX (21st vs. 32nd)

 

So let’s keep this simple: we have the #2 rated offensive going against the #32 ranked defense, and GB has a defense that’s ranked 10 spots higher going against Luton?

 

That’s enough for me. Green Bay -13.

 

New York Giants +4 vs Philadelphia Eagles

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I love pain. The New York Football Giants have let me down (regardless of whether I’m backing them or fading them) ALL SEASON. 

 

Even yet, as I scour the NFL board, I can’t help but love the number: +3.

 

To be frank, I expected it to be bigger. The Eagles, naturally, have also looked terrible this year, but they get their #1 RB back on the field this week, and have put together a nice two game win streak after almost pulling off an incredible comeback against the Ravens.

 

In addition, the Eagles resume isn’t actually THAT bad:

  • Beat SF by 5

  • Lost to the Steelers by 9

  • Lost to the Ravens by 2

  • Beat the Giants

  • Beat the Cowboys

 

Honing into the first matchup against the NYG (22-21 win by PHI), we also see that the line closed at a juiced -3.5. The lack of movement (-3.5 -110 to -4 -110) there gives me confidence that Vegas is expecting a very similar outcome, regardless of the underlying stats.

 

The underlying stats?

  • PHI is ranked 11th in defensive efficiency, compared to 22nd for the NYG

  • PHI is ranked 30th in offensive effeminacy compares to 26th for the giants 

 

Is the 10 spot delta (significant) really only worth 4 points? Apparently.

 

Looking at yards/play, we see less of a discrepancy:

  • PHI gains 5.0 Y/P on offense compared to 4.9 for NYG.

  • PHI allows 5.0 Y/P on defense compared to 5.6 for NYG

 

Same with points/play:

  • PHI gets .350 P/P on offense compared to .306 for NYG.

  • PHI allows .376 Y/P on defense compared to .378 for NYG

 

I love the defensive points/play similarity.

 

Last thing I love: the NYG are scoring only 45.83% of the time in the Red Zone (terrible), but Philadelphia defense is allowing opponents to score at a 69.23% clip. Good for the Giants.

 

The Eagles are scoring at a 64% clip in the red zone, but the Giants are allowing teams to score only 52.78% of the time. Good for the Giants.

Bonus: Ravens 1H -3

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That’s it. Riding with my guy Joe.

 

As always, I’ll most likely have some last minute adds to the Week 10 board. The PROFIT GOD speaks to me early mornings on Sunday between my gasps for air and my search for Advil after a few too many adult beverages the evening prior.

 

Great day for a great day - let’s get it done. 

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