Gambling Picks for NFL Week 5

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Hear me out—I've been doing this betting thing for a while now. I report for duty today in order to share my learnings. 

Let's get straight to the picks. 

Patriots -15 (86% of bets)

Look, I get it. Pounding public favorites isn’t what you want to see every week. I also understand that the Patriots are 0-2 against the spread in their last two. But let’s think about why they didn’t cover those two games:

  • Rookie punt returner fumbling for a TD combined with a backup QB pick 6
  • Missed XP

Dare I say that they failed in most un-Patriots way possible? Most excellent. Fast forward to this week, where they get the Redskins.

The Redskins at this point are in absolute turmoil. Case Keenum looks slightly better than a JV QB for a losing high school team, and Haskins, while immensely talented, has a long way to go, coming off a three INT against a Giants secondary that is respectfully in the bottom third of the league in defensive efficiency. 

So that brings us to the Patriots defense. Their defense is currently eight in total points scored in fantasy football—eighth overall. They are certainly due to regress a touch, but not now, not this weekend, not against the Redskins. The Pats defense is #1 in defensive efficiency against the pass, #2 against the run, and they have 10 turnovers in four games. They have five more turnovers than any other team.

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots are coming off a dud offensive effort against a strong Bills defense in a hostile Buffalo environment. They’re still Top 10 in offensive efficiency, going against a defense that ranks 26th in overall team defensive efficiency.

Roll Pats.

Bears -5 (71% of bets)

London, baby, yeah! This year we get a 1 PM EST London game, rather than the breakfast special—a nice touch. A few fun facts about the London games.

  • Favorites are 15-9 ATS (Favorites have covered 12 of the last 16 games, and  3/4 of those covers came from the Jags, interesting)
  • Favorites, since 2017, have won by an average of 18.4 points. Interesting as well.

So that brings us to Week 5, where the Bears are without their starting QB Mitch Trubisky, riding with Chase Daniels at the helm, and quite frankly that might be a good thing.

In four games this season, Trubisky has only thrown for a TD in one of those games, tossing three against the Redskins, whom we already discussed above. He’s quite frankly been uninspiring to be kind, mediocre to be blunt. 

Enter Chase Daniels: Daniels was moving the rock nicely in the first half vs. a staunch Viking defense, and settled down as game flow dictated a run-the-ball second half. 

Daniels also gets the Raiders defense, which doesn’t exactly bring it. They’re 27th in defensive efficiency against the pass, which also gives Chase a chance to perform well, but have been good against the run.

Chicago’s defense has been fierce. They're sixth in passing defensive efficiency, and third in rushing. Oakland’s offense has been ‘serviceable’, and I say that generously, but no one has been able to light up the Bears, and I don’t think that starts in London, especially with Tyrell Williams missing practice this week.

  • 13th in rushing efficiency, solid
  • 21st in passing efficiency, uh oh

Alas, I feel the biggest gap here stems from the Chicago defense overpowering Oakland in all facets of this game, and the bears roll to a low scoring cover, something like 20-7.

Bear down.

Eagles -13.5 (44% of bets)

A fun fact about home teams this year: they’ve only won 42% of the time. Time for some regression? I think so. Home teams in last five years: 60% win rate, 57%, 57%, 54%,  57% dating back to 2014. 

Enter the Eagles. The Eagles are coming off an inspiring road win vs. Green Bay last Thursday, giving them a few extra days of rest. This game, at almost a 2 TD faves, does have a bit of a let-down scenario on it, but looking at the numbers, the talent gap here should favor the Eagles significantly. 

Offense, Philadelphia: 4th overall in O Efficiency

  • 8th in passing
  • 11th in running

Defense, Jets: 12th overall in defensive efficiency 

  • 10th in passing
  • 11th in running

Offense, Jets: 30th overall in O Efficiency

  • 29th in passing
  • 29th in rushing

Defense, Philadelphia

  • 23rd against the pass
  • 5th against the run

Eagles points: 32, 20, 24, 34

Jets points w/ Falk: 3, 0 (both scores on special teams or defense)

Looking at these, we see the largest discrepancy in running games: the Jets do everything in their power to get LeVeon the ball, rightfully so, but the Eagles have specifically been great against the run.

Combo that with Luke Falk’s currently non-existent passing game (check down after check down), Philly’s 23rd defensive pass efficiency is an easier pill to swallow. 

While the Jets are coming off a bye, the extra few days of rest for the Eagles is enough of a balance for me.

I’m looking for an ugly game here to the tune of 35-10, and need Wentz to take care of the ball for a nice cover. 

Any questions? Hit me up on Twitter, @oldmanwhobets. See you there.

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